A report on the "Joint Operating Environment", compiled by the army's high command, places Mexico alongside Pakistan as a possible failed state of the future. America, which shares a 2,000 mile border with Mexico, would be the obvious destination for massive refugee flows if its neighbour descended into civil war.
President Felipe Calderon has deployed Mexico's army in a new offensive against organised crime. This battle against four major drug cartels, along with a myriad of local syndicates, claimed the lives of 5,367 members of the security forces or suspected criminals last year alone.
"Two large and important states bear consideration for rapid and sudden collapse: Pakistan and Mexico," reads the US army's report.
"The Mexican possibility may seem less likely, but the government, its politicians, police and judicial infrastructure are all under sustained assault and pressure by criminal gangs and drug cartels. How that internal conflict turns out over the next several years will have a major impact on the stability of the Mexican state." Telegraph